The Simple Change Driving Justin Steele’s Success in 2023

Named an early contender for the NL Cy Young Award back in May, Steele has gone 14-3 with a 2.80 ERA, ranking second to Blake Snell (2.60) of the San Diego Padres for the lowest in baseball among qualified pitchers. He leads the NL with a Home Run per 9 Inning rate of 0.717, and is among the top ten pitchers in the league in WHIP (1.174) & Walks per 9 Innings (1.957). He was also named to the All-Star team for the first time, despite the fact Steele had a stint on the Injured List due to a forearm strain in his throwing arm back in June.

Advanced metrics also paint Justin Steele in a positive light. His ERA+, which takes into account the ballpark the pitcher plays in with 100 being the average, is 163, leading all of baseball and ahead of star pitchers Shohei Ohtani and Gerrit Cole. Steele is also among the top ten pitchers in the NL in Adjusted Pitching Wins (2.3), a stat where it estimates a pitcher’s total contribution to a team win with his arm, and Baseball Reference WAR (3.2). His average exit velocity allowed on balls put in play is one of the softest in baseball (87.3 MPH) and opponents rarely barrel up any of his pitches, doing so only 6.0% of the time.

The success comes despite Steele possessing a below average fastball velocity (91.8 MPH) and a league-average strikeout rate (8.7/9 innings). Without being flashy with the swing and miss or with a high-octane fastball, how has Justin Steele been able to evolve into the Cubs’ co-ace and a Cy Young Contender?

It’s All About the Fastball for Justin Steele

In reality, it is all about the fastball, or the one he uses. Having a reputation as a pitcher who throws primarily fastballs, Steele threw them 65% of the time in his debut season in 2021. His repertoire includes a four-seam fastball and a sinking two-seam fastball, thrown at about a 70-30 ratio of four seamers to sinkers. Opponents batted a combined .251 against the fastball in 2021, with Steele allowing an opponent slugging percentage of .455, surrendering eight of his 12 home runs allowed that year off the fastball.

In 2023, opponents are now batting .275 against Steele’s fastball, per Baseball Savant, but are only slugging .399 against it. The approach from the Cubs’ southpaw hasn’t changed either, as 65% of his pitches thrown this season are still fastballs. But Steele now mainly throws the four-seamer, all but abandoning the sinker, and using his slider to play off of it. Over his first two seasons in the majors, the sinker was hit hard to the tune of a .315 opponent BA and a .484 opponent SLG.

Using the four-seam fastball almost exclusively has led to Steele relying on it to get big outs, as the pitch has a run value of 11, factoring in runners on base and count situations he’s faced. He also induces soft contact with the fastball, allowing a hard hit rate of only 34% on the pitch. Among pitchers with a minimum of 250 plate appearances ending with a specific pitch, Steele’s hard hit rate allowed on the four-seamer is the best in baseball.

Thanks to relying on the four-seam fastball, Justin Steele has evolved into the Cubs’ long-awaited homegrown ace of the pitching staff. Throwing the four-seamer for strikes has also contributed to his walk rate being cut in half from 2022. A simple change in his pitch mix has turned Steele from a depth pitcher into a contender for the Cy Young Award. With the results proving that he’s one of the best pitchers in the game today, we’ll likely hear Steele’s name in the Cy Young discussion for many years to come.